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The USA election-2016: financial exepectations and Alex Gerchik’s opinion

Александр Герчик

On November 8 the USA elected the 45th president. The republican Donald Trump gained a victory over the democrat representative Hillary Clinton.

What would the fate of the country which sets a political and economic course in the world? Which financial trends would prevail?

The president of Gerchik & Co company Alex Gerchik answered these and other questions an economic expert of the RBK channel asked.

– Alex, for whom have you voted, how are the sentiments in New York? And why have Trump’s election and his entering the office caused such an agio in the market, why has everything dropped?

– I have been voting for Trump from the first day. I often conduct reviews in real time. It was the main question for the last three weeks: why have I voted for Trump?

I have voted for Trump for two reasons.

First of all, I’m against Clinton as I consider such a person couldn’t be the president of the country. Only her election programme clearly showed which course America would go, if she became the president. Nothing would change, as the course the democrats and the President Obama set would remain. I didn’t like it, so I voted for Trump.

Secondly, I consider this country has a right at least once to have the president originating not out political framework, but business.

I’d say even more I have the friends who work together with Trump and built together a large number of real estate in Florida and New York. They all speak highly of him as a business partner and everyone says he is a really very decent person and there are great hopes Trump would be able to do something.

I will answer the second part of the question about the market reaction. Danila, you have been in the industry many years and you know as everyone that markets don’t like one thing – uncertainty. That happened yesterday.

I watched the elections yesterday for a long time and followed S&P futures. I try not to trade during such days, but I know many traders participated in the aggressive trading, many people earned many money. But I don’t like such speculations.

However, speculators don’t like uncertainty. When everything goes smoothly and something happens unexpectedly. That’s why we were down very much. Dow Jones futures were almost 700 points. As far as I saw, S&P had the largest amount a bit less than 5, about 4.2-4.3.

Everything practically condensed, we were at a loss just minus one and half. I suppose now we would recover losses within several weeks, perhaps, week at most.

I don’t agree with one thing: I don’t believe GDP would increase to 5-6% with Trump as he projects. I think four years wouldn’t be enough.

In general, I have read his programme and I’m unanimous and agree with him in many things.